Influence of Dissenting Airmen

Influence of Dissenting Airmen — 85% Jury Statistic

What If You Disagree?

What If You Disagree

What should you do if you are part of a group, and you are concerned the group will make a bad decision?

Speak Up

It may seem obvious, but it is important that you speak up during the group's discussions.

Better Decisions with Opposing Views

Opposing Views Better Decisions

Groups tend to make better decisions when exposed to an opposing view because group members become more likely to see the situation from different angles.

Yes/No Decisions and the 85% Statistic

Yes/No Decisions

When making yes/no decisions (e.g., guilty/not-guilty verdict on a jury), groups typically make decisions that the majority of group members would have recommended if asked independently and anonymously.

85% Jury First Ballot

For example, 85% of the time the majority position on a jury's first ballot will end up being the group's final decision.

Multi-Alternative Decisions

However, in most decision-making contexts, there are many possible alternatives, and even a single opposing view can encourage groups to consider a broader range of possible options.

Example — Hiring

Hiring Example

For example, imagine only two civilian candidates applied for a job. The question posed to the group may have originally been framed as:

- "Should we hire Candidate A or Candidate B?"

While it may seem like there are only two options, there are probably other alternatives. For example:

Could the position be re-advertised to encourage more people to apply?
Could one of the candidates be detailed to the position so the group can re-evaluate based on initial performance before making a final decision?
Could the position be filled by a military member rather than a civilian?

Divergent Thinking

Divergent Thinking Definition

Even a single opposing view can foster divergent thinking (generation of a range of possible alternatives).

Why Speaking Up Matters

So even if a group does not ultimately adopt your specific position, group members will be more likely to think of other possible alternatives that they may not have otherwise considered or shared. As a result, good group decisions become more likely.